US T-Bills (1-3mths): 20-year retirement

Last Update: 28 February 2023

Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the US T-Bills (1-3mths) asset class?

According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.258% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.

Considering the last 20 years (last update: February 2023), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 4.615%.

The last 20 years of the US T-Bills (1-3mths) asset class

Over the last 20 years (last update: February 2023), the asset class has returned 1.13% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -0.42%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the investment didn't run out of money during retirement. The capital went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Feb 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
20 Years 1 Mar 2003
 28 Feb 2023 0.000 4.615 1.13
[ -1.32 ] 		-0.42
Nov 2009 - Dec 2015
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US T-Bills (1-3mths) Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US T-Bills (1-3mths) page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US T-Bills (1-3mths) asset class?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Jun 1900 		0.000
Dec 1930 		0.194
Jun 1933 		1.895
May 1933 		3.258
Nov 1940 		3.630
95% Succ. 		3.924
90% Succ. 		5.070
80% Succ. 		5.657
50% Succ.
Median 1.248
 2.302
 3.399
 4.472
 5.657
Average 1.980
 2.864
 3.891
 4.996
 6.102
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		9.167
May 1872 		9.678
May 1872 		10.236
Apr 1873 		10.822
Apr 1873 		11.408
Apr 1873
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.013
 1.248
75% 0.000
 0.000
 0.099
 1.383
 2.302
50% 0.194
 0.590
 1.456
 2.741
 3.399
25% 1.895
 2.080
 2.715
 4.025
 4.472
0% 3.258
 3.630
 3.924
 5.070
 5.657
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Apr 1927 		0.000
Dec 1930 		0.194
Jun 1933 		1.895
May 1933 		3.258
Nov 1940 		3.549
95% Succ. 		3.659
90% Succ. 		4.603
80% Succ. 		5.419
50% Succ.
Median 0.626
 1.840
 3.025
 4.150
 5.419
Average 0.799
 1.678
 2.793
 4.038
 5.283
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		3.093
Jan 1981 		4.077
Dec 1980 		5.061
Dec 1980 		6.045
Dec 1980 		7.239
Jul 1923
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.626
75% 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.387
 1.840
50% 0.194
 0.542
 0.642
 1.655
 3.025
25% 1.895
 2.021
 2.111
 3.093
 4.150
0% 3.258
 3.549
 3.659
 4.603
 5.419
Period: Mar 1973 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Dec 1996 		0.021
Jul 2002 		1.548
Jul 2002 		3.057
Dec 2002 		4.563
Dec 2002 		4.678
95% Succ. 		4.890
90% Succ. 		5.276
80% Succ. 		5.756
50% Succ.
Median 1.354
 2.453
 3.522
 4.638
 5.756
Average 1.248
 2.272
 3.441
 4.610
 5.779
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		3.093
Jan 1981 		4.077
Dec 1980 		5.061
Dec 1980 		6.045
Dec 1980 		7.030
Feb 1981
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 1.354
75% 0.021
 0.387
 0.808
 1.278
 2.453
50% 1.548
 1.818
 2.164
 2.641
 3.522
25% 3.057
 3.250
 3.526
 4.004
 4.638
0% 4.563
 4.678
 4.890
 5.276
 5.756
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US T-Bills (1-3mths) Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US T-Bills (1-3mths) asset class, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
97.67
86.33
61.44
32.89
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
91.87
81.60
45.24
25.39
3.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.258% 		0.00
100.00
88.53
71.20
31.76
21.30
3.50 %
97.23
95% Succ.
3.630% 		2.77
97.23
85.63
46.38
25.33
19.03
4.00 %
89.54
10.46
89.54
80.28
32.70
21.05
17.27
4.50 %
88.66
11.34
88.66
48.71
25.77
18.84
14.93
5.00 %
82.73
80% Succ.
5.070% 		17.27
82.73
33.46
20.86
16.82
12.04
5.50 %
60.93
50% Succ.
5.657% 		39.07
60.93
27.47
18.71
14.05
10.08
6.00 %
36.74
63.26
36.74
20.92
16.19
11.03
8.95
6.50 %
28.17
71.83
28.17
18.59
13.48
9.45
7.25
7.00 %
22.81
77.19
22.81
15.75
10.14
8.13
5.92
7.50 %
18.46
81.54
18.46
11.78
9.07
6.43
4.35
8.00 %
14.74
85.26
14.74
9.83
6.74
4.85
3.02
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
96.15
77.42
39.75
10.61
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
86.58
69.61
22.06
5.31
3.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.258% 		0.00
100.00
81.06
52.76
11.86
1.46
3.50 %
95.42
95% Succ.
3.549% 		4.58
95.42
76.27
23.83
4.99
0.00
4.00 %
82.73
17.27
82.73
67.74
14.26
1.35
0.00
4.50 %
81.27
80% Succ.
4.603% 		18.73
81.27
26.95
6.35
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
73.47
50% Succ.
5.419% 		26.53
73.47
15.71
1.25
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
45.79
54.21
45.79
9.57
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
18.42
81.58
18.42
1.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
11.03
88.97
11.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
4.06
95.94
4.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1973 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
93.07
60.66
24.93
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
81.99
47.37
14.13
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
73.41
25.48
3.88
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
91.14
50.69
13.30
0.00
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
80.06
26.59
3.60
0.00
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.563% 		0.00
100.00
55.40
13.30
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
86.43
80% Succ.
5.276% 		13.57
86.43
28.53
3.32
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
70.91
50% Succ.
5.756% 		29.09
70.91
14.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
29.92
70.08
29.92
2.77
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
14.96
85.04
14.96
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
2.77
97.23
2.77
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US T-Bills (1-3mths) Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Related Pages

Asset Class Main Page:
US T-Bills (1-3mths) Asset Class

For the US T-Bills (1-3mths) Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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