Last Update: 31 October 2024
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the US T-Bills (1-3mths) asset class?
According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.258% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.
Considering the last 20 years (last update: October 2024), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 4.604%.
The last 20 years of the US T-Bills (1-3mths) asset class
Over the last 20 years (last update: October 2024), the asset class has returned 1.47% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -0.42%.
Timeframes ending at Oct 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 Nov 2004 |
31 Oct 2024 | 0.000 | 4.604 |
1.47 [ -1.04 ] |
-0.42 Nov 2009 - Dec 2015 |
For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US T-Bills (1-3mths) page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US T-Bills (1-3mths) asset class?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Jun 1900 |
0.000 Dec 1930 |
0.194 Jun 1933 |
1.895 May 1933 |
3.258 Nov 1940 |
95% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.592 |
2.080 |
3.631 |
|
90% |
0.000 |
0.085 |
1.485 |
2.717 |
3.928 |
|
80% |
0.000 |
1.235 |
2.597 |
3.960 |
5.054 |
|
50% Median WR |
1.238 |
2.286 |
3.384 |
4.461 |
5.646 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Apr 1927 |
0.000 Dec 1930 |
0.194 Jun 1933 |
1.895 May 1933 |
3.258 Nov 1940 |
95% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.542 |
2.021 |
3.549 |
|
90% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.642 |
2.111 |
3.659 |
|
80% |
0.000 |
0.245 |
1.611 |
3.077 |
4.578 |
|
50% Median WR |
0.598 |
1.813 |
3.007 |
4.131 |
5.354 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Dec 1996 |
0.021 Jul 2002 |
1.548 Jul 2002 |
3.057 Dec 2002 |
4.535 Dec 2003 |
95% |
0.000 |
0.137 |
1.611 |
3.100 |
4.596 |
|
90% |
0.000 |
0.348 |
1.767 |
3.190 |
4.631 |
|
80% |
0.000 |
0.911 |
2.282 |
3.659 |
5.036 |
|
50% Median WR |
1.165 |
2.325 |
3.484 |
4.638 |
5.756 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US T-Bills (1-3mths) asset class, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
97.70
|
85.25
|
60.67
|
32.48
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
91.97
|
80.58
|
44.68
|
25.08
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.258% |
0.00 |
88.67
|
70.32
|
31.36
|
21.03
|
3.50 % |
97.26
|
95% Succ. 3.631% |
2.74 |
84.57
|
45.80
|
25.02
|
18.79
|
4.00 % |
89.67
|
10.33 |
79.28
|
32.30
|
20.78
|
17.05
|
|
4.50 % |
88.80
|
11.20 |
48.10
|
25.45
|
18.61
|
14.75
|
|
5.00 % |
81.71
|
80% Succ. 5.054% |
18.29 |
33.04
|
20.60
|
16.61
|
11.89
|
5.50 % |
60.17
|
50% Succ. 5.646% |
39.83 |
27.13
|
18.48
|
13.88
|
9.96
|
6.00 % |
36.28
|
63.72 |
20.66
|
15.99
|
10.89
|
8.84
|
|
6.50 % |
27.82
|
72.18 |
18.36
|
13.32
|
9.33
|
7.16
|
|
7.00 % |
22.53
|
77.47 |
15.56
|
10.02
|
8.03
|
5.85
|
|
7.50 % |
18.23
|
81.77 |
11.64
|
8.96
|
6.35
|
4.29
|
|
8.00 % |
14.56
|
85.44 |
9.71
|
6.66
|
4.79
|
2.99
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
96.15
|
75.34
|
37.67
|
9.37
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
86.58
|
67.53
|
19.98
|
5.31
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.258% |
0.00 |
81.06
|
50.68
|
9.89
|
1.46
|
3.50 % |
95.42
|
95% Succ. 3.549% |
4.58 |
74.19
|
21.75
|
4.99
|
0.00
|
4.00 % |
82.73
|
17.27 |
65.66
|
12.17
|
1.35
|
0.00
|
|
4.50 % |
81.27
|
80% Succ. 4.578% |
18.73 |
24.87
|
4.99
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
5.00 % |
71.38
|
50% Succ. 5.354% |
28.62 |
13.63
|
1.25
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
5.50 % |
43.70
|
56.30 |
7.49
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
16.34
|
83.66 |
1.04
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
8.95
|
91.05 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
2.39
|
97.61 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
87.53
|
55.12
|
24.93
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
76.45
|
46.54
|
14.13
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
67.87
|
25.48
|
3.88
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
85.60
|
49.86
|
13.30
|
0.00
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
74.52
|
26.59
|
3.60
|
0.00
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.535% |
0.00 |
54.57
|
13.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
5.00 % |
80.89
|
80% Succ. 5.036% |
19.11 |
28.53
|
3.32
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
5.50 % |
70.08
|
50% Succ. 5.756% |
29.92 |
14.40
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
6.00 % |
29.92
|
70.08 |
2.77
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
14.96
|
85.04 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
2.77
|
97.23 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
US T-Bills (1-3mths) Asset Class
For the US T-Bills (1-3mths) Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com